{"id":1637,"date":"2026-09-28T16:36:29","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T16:36:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/flatplanplus.io\/bbc-sciencefocus\/?p=1637"},"modified":"2026-09-28T16:36:30","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T16:36:30","slug":"danger-zone-these-5-us-states-are-about-to-be-hit-hardest-by-el-nino-experts-warn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/flatplanplus.io\/bbc-sciencefocus\/2026\/09\/28\/danger-zone-these-5-us-states-are-about-to-be-hit-hardest-by-el-nino-experts-warn\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Danger zone\u2019: These 5 US states are about to be hit hardest by El Ni\u00f1o, experts warn"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignfull fp-header is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-0b532b7c wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"padding-top:0;padding-right:0;padding-bottom:0;padding-left:0\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignfull has-base-2-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-3a88641f wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center fp-category has-titlinggothicfb-extended-font-family has-contrast-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px;text-decoration:underline;text-transform:uppercase\">Climate<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center has-base-color has-text-color has-link-color has-acta-font-family wp-elements-2\" style=\"margin-top:5px;font-size:41px;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;text-transform:none\">\u2018Danger zone\u2019: These 5 US states are about to be hit hardest by El Ni\u00f1o, experts warn<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center fp-intro has-acta-font-family has-base-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-3 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"margin-top:0;margin-right:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-left:0;font-size:20px;font-style:normal;font-weight:700\">Some states face too much water, others too little. Here&#8217;s what the coming months could bring<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator aligncenter has-text-color has-base-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-base-background-color has-background is-style-default\" style=\"margin-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--md);margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--md)\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center fp-author has-titlinggothicfb-extended-font-family has-contrast-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-4 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:12px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;text-transform:uppercase\">By Roland Hughes<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center fp-date has-base-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-5 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"margin-top:0px;font-size:14px\">&#8211;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"816\" src=\"https:\/\/flatplan-plus-content.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/09\/GettyImages-2269233038-1-1024x816.jpg\" alt=\"A melting American flag on top of a purple background\" class=\"wp-image-1638\" style=\"width:1024px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/flatplan-plus-content.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/09\/GettyImages-2269233038-1-1024x816.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/flatplan-plus-content.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/09\/GettyImages-2269233038-1-300x239.jpg 300w, https:\/\/flatplan-plus-content.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/09\/GettyImages-2269233038-1-768x612.jpg 768w, https:\/\/flatplan-plus-content.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/09\/GettyImages-2269233038-1-1536x1225.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/flatplan-plus-content.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/09\/GettyImages-2269233038-1.jpg 2007w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Photo credit: Getty<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap wp-block-paragraph\">The world is entering a \u201cdanger zone of extreme weather\u201d as the El Ni\u00f1o weather phenomenon starts to be felt, UN chief Ant\u00f3nio Guterres said in early September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">His warnings have been echoed by governments, charities and scientists around the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El Ni\u00f1o always plays havoc with global weather by changing wind patterns and releasing extreme heat and warm water. But in a world that\u2019s warmer than ever, with increasingly unpredictable weather events, it\u2019s little wonder this El Ni\u00f1o is being seen as \u201csupersized\u201d, in Guterres\u2019s words.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From wildfires in Indonesia to heavy rains in Peru, the world is already experiencing the effects. And within the US, different states will be hit in very different ways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">California<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/c02.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/41\/2026\/09\/GettyImages-2025987008.jpg\" alt=\"Houses and palm trees stand in the background of crashing waves\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Waves crashing on breakwater rocks at Cabrillo Beach in California. Photo credit: Getty<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The third-largest state is perhaps the one most at risk of the effects of El Ni\u00f1o \u2013 and the danger comes in two forms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first is from the sky. California receives only a few months of rain a year, in winter. A small shift in the path of storms barrelling in from the Pacific, as can happen during El Ni\u00f1o, can move those rains away and lead to drought, or act as a firehose pointing directly at the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some previous El Ni\u00f1o events have brought significant rains to California, and south and central parts have received close to double their annual rainfall during these times, says Dr Daniel Swain, a Colorado-based climate scientist who writes the Weather West blog.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt is entirely possible that parts of California see close to, or even in excess of, double their average seasonal precipitation as a result of this event,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The second danger comes from the sea. More powerful storms fuelled by warmer seas and a stronger El Ni\u00f1o could coincide with larger waves and so-called king tides.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At some point, we can expect significant coastal flooding and erosion, Swain says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019s not just these mansions overlooking the ocean on the cliffs that are at risk from the large, battering waves,\u201d he says. \u201cIt\u2019s also the transportation corridors in these regions.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He names places like San Francisco Bay, San Diego Bay and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta region as large coastal populations in potential danger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThere are millions of people living within several feet of sea level, in both northern and southern California, away from the immediate coast, who are actually at risk of saltwater flooding from ocean rise.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-base-2-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-base-2-background-color has-background is-style-default\" style=\"margin-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--md);margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--md)\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center has-contrast-color has-text-color has-link-color has-titlinggothicfb-extended-font-family wp-elements-6\" style=\"font-size:13px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;text-transform:uppercase\">Read More:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/apple.news\/A8KJE2oVVSLiQX3tnKYrY3Q\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/apple.news\/A8KJE2oVVSLiQX3tnKYrY3Q\">\u2018It\u2019s just incredible\u2019: The 6 strangest discoveries experts have made about Stonehenge<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/apple.news\/AyszJhQ1JSj28hgF_uOXibQ\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/apple.news\/AyszJhQ1JSj28hgF_uOXibQ\">\u2018I expected life. But not this\u2019: Experts are uncovering a trove of very strange creatures hiding under Antarctica<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/apple.news\/AkaUKYDHtSa-IBwBkSjJgug\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/apple.news\/AkaUKYDHtSa-IBwBkSjJgug\">One country seems immune to global warming. And nobody knows why<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-base-2-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-base-2-background-color has-background is-style-default\" style=\"margin-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--md);margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--md)\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Hawaii<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The effects of El Ni\u00f1o are already being clearly felt on the archipelago. \u201cThere have now been two major hurricane events in Hawaii this summer, in a place where ordinarily we go a decade with none,\u201d Swain says. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Warming waters in the Pacific have increased the risk to Hawaii from such supercharged storms. In August, Hurricane Lala became the first hurricane to make a direct hit on Big Island since 1871. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Just weeks later, Hurricane Lowell, a Category 2 storm, caused significant damage to the island of Kauai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/c02.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/41\/2026\/09\/GettyImages-2290117385.jpg\" alt=\"A man walks out of grocery store in torrential rain, carrying supplies and a large grey umbrella \" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A resident carries supplies during Hurricane Lala in Hawaii. Photo credit: Getty<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The waters in the eastern and central Pacific around Hawaii are normally cool. But when they heat up, it can lead to a collapse in the trade winds \u2013 and even cause them to change direction from west to east. That would mean warmer air over Hawaii \u2013 which would then lead to drought and less fresh water.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThere is a virtual guarantee of significant drought conditions developing there,\u201d Swain says. \u201cWe may well go from a period of overabundance on some of these islands to a period of water scarcity, and, as we\u2019ve seen in recent years, there is considerable wildfire risk even in Hawaii.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In August 2023, the deadliest wildfires in the US in a century struck the Hawaiian island of Maui, killing 102 people and causing at least $5.5bn of damage. At the time, large parts of Maui were suffering drought.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Florida<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Historically, the southeasternmost state has tended to be in the crosshairs of Atlantic hurricanes, from Donna to Andrew to Helene. But not this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the eastern Pacific, where the waters are hotter than ever due to El Ni\u00f1o, it\u2019s been a relatively active hurricane season, as Hawaii shows. But this year not a single hurricane has formed in the Atlantic, setting a new record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is because of a stronger wind shear during El Ni\u00f1o \u2013 simply put, stronger easterly winds are helping break apart storms before they can gather strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But it\u2019s not all good news for Florida. The National Weather Service reports that the number of tornadoes there doubles during El Ni\u00f1o years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/c02.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/41\/2026\/09\/GettyImages-845340540-1.jpg\" alt=\"Palm trees bend in grey windy weather\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Trees bend in 2017 tropical storm winds along North Fort Lauderdale Beach Boulevard in Florida. Photo credit: Getty<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Expect more rain and flooding, too \u2013 especially around rivers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cFlorida, and the Southeast US in general, has one of the most reliable El Ni\u00f1o impacts of anywhere: El Ni\u00f1o winters tend to be rainier,\u201d says Dr Emily Becker, a climate researcher at the University of Miami.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o increases both the frequency and intensity of winter daily rainfall in Florida, so the expectation is for more rainy days, and heavier rain, too.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In some parts of Florida and the Carolinas, the rain could be welcome due to a recent drought, Swain says. \u201cBut there\u2019s a good chance we\u2019ll go from scarcity to overabundance now.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He adds that there was also a pattern of \u201csevere thunderstorm outbreaks\u201d in Florida during strong El Ni\u00f1o years. So there\u2019s plenty to watch out for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oregon and Washington<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The same shift in the jet stream that brings rain to California affects its northern neighbours in a different way: the northwestern states are likely to see warmer, drier conditions over the coming months. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During an El Ni\u00f1o event in 2015, a series of wildfires in Washington state destroyed 123,331 hectares (304,782 acres) \u2013 this remains the largest such event in the state\u2019s history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Warmer temperatures also mean less snow on higher ground. And with less snow melting later in the year, that means less fresh water \u2013 and therefore the risk of drought and wildfire increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When the supply of fresh water becomes less reliable, it also tends to hit salmon stocks, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And warm ocean temperatures can badly affect the sea fishing industry too: cold-water species that usually thrive off the Oregon and Washington coasts are forced north, shifting the whole food chain with them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Oregon alone, where fishing generated an estimated $517m in revenue last year, that\u2019s bad news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" id=\"block-4897a263-375f-43f7-ba8b-6f2426f9ee34\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-5d8d2e38-6a85-4412-a1e2-5a15c11c31f0\">by <strong><em>ROLAND HUGHES<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-dea475a0-8e95-441b-bbb9-949b69a9b4c5\">Roland is a news features writer. He has worked as an editor with <em>BBC News<\/em>, and has written for <em>The Guardian, The Dispatch<\/em> and more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns fp-readmore is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-3a88641f wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-base-2-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-base-2-background-color has-background is-style-default\" style=\"margin-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--md);margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--md)\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center has-contrast-color has-text-color has-link-color has-titlinggothicfb-extended-font-family wp-elements-7\" style=\"font-size:13px;font-style:normal;font-weight:400;text-transform:uppercase\">Read More:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/apple.news\/AS_ZkllWbSLuwDq26dxmZXw\">A biblical megaflood could hit the US at any time. And we&#8217;re not prepared<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/apple.news\/AM-yZ8FLoSIyI1DpXVwzyLQ\">Why the US may be unprepared for a deadly storm season ahead<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/apple.news\/A2GUkvLT8RGKE4a_czYou4g\">Why lightning may be the key to solving America&#8217;s $15bn hail crisis<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-base-2-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-base-2-background-color has-background is-style-default\" style=\"margin-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--md);margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--md)\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Some states face too much water, others too little. Here&#8217;s what the coming months could bring<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":45,"featured_media":1638,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"yes","footnotes":""},"categories":[21,65,8],"tags":[55,66,52],"class_list":["post-1637","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-earth","category-nature","category-news","tag-natural-disaster","tag-nature","tag-weather"],"acf":{"article_authors":"Roland Hughes","send_as_draft":true,"send_as_paid":true,"send_as_featured":true},"modified_by":"tling","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/flatplanplus.io\/bbc-sciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1637","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/flatplanplus.io\/bbc-sciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/flatplanplus.io\/bbc-sciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flatplanplus.io\/bbc-sciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/45"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flatplanplus.io\/bbc-sciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1637"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/flatplanplus.io\/bbc-sciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1637\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1649,"href":"https:\/\/flatplanplus.io\/bbc-sciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1637\/revisions\/1649"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flatplanplus.io\/bbc-sciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1638"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/flatplanplus.io\/bbc-sciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1637"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flatplanplus.io\/bbc-sciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1637"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flatplanplus.io\/bbc-sciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1637"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}